I have been looking for a latest economic update from the Beaulieu Brothers of ITR Economics who have a high profile/trusted reputation in the Vistage community and I found this:
- Prepare For Second Half Slowdown, Mild 2019 Recession
- Downturn Will Usher in the Roaring 20s
- Read the whole thing (through the small part when it gets Denver specific) and you will see they are staying true to what they have always said over the last few years:
- Mild Recession Q1/Q2 2019 (“very, very mild” being their latest view)
- Boom time in the 2020s
- Depression in the 2030s (for which they have published a book, “Prosperity in the Age of Decline: How to Lead Your Business and Preserve Wealth Through the Coming Business Cycles“)
Also, here is a perspective from Brian Beaulieu on the S&P 500 and some other recent blogs that I find the most informative:
- January 3rd 2018: S&P Perspective, which makes interesting reading.
- Note: I had to remind myself of the reason for using a Logarithmic Chart!
- “Logarithmic Chart. Definition. A chart for which the price scale (usually on the vertical axis) is skewed so that a given distance always represents the same percentage change in price, rather than the same absolute change in price (as is the case for a linear chart).
- Read more: What is the difference between a logarithmic price scale and a linear one?
- January 24th 2018: Blissful & Blind
- February 15th 2018: The Stock Market Is Speaking, Are You Listening?
Plus here are other perspectives on market indices:
- McKinsey: Looking behind the numbers for US stock indexes
- Bloomberg Businessweek: Are You Missing Out on the Great Market Melt-Up?
- Vistage: The Vistage CEO Confidence Index Forecasting for your Business
Are you Recession-Ready? Will you be Depression-Ready? The AGILE Minority will be. The FRAGILE Majority won’t be. Which will you be in? Don’t wait.
- Note: I have heard the Beaulieu Brothers/ITR Economics speak 2 or 3 times over the last 5 years since we progressively emerged from the Great Recession in 2009/10/11 and they have always been consistent with the above summary, despite “shocks” to the system:
- The election result/President Trump
- Tax Reform
- They are speaking at a few Vistage all-city events this year, so we will get further updates.
Just had a trusted advisor Kirk Michie from AB Bernstein talking at my Vistage Groups about the landscape for Mergers and Acquisitions activity given the outlook for the economy and stock markets. Below is a nice summary video from AB Bernstein.
- For the first time in history, 14 consecutive months of positive returns in global markets, which has never happened before.
Of course a recurring question all week was about BitCoin, so here are some links to get you started in understanding more: